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As at: 7 June 2026 Spot gold: ~A$6,150/oz (US$4,339/oz)

ASX proxy: GOLD.AX $57.04

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Thesis: Physical demand remains firm while the paper market is de‑risking. The divergence is moderate but building, with the Shanghai premium as the key tripwire.

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Tools used in the report: Hermes and its agent API’s Look to the bottom of the report for more details.

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COMEX Divergence & ASX Gold Scenario Analysis — v2

Updated: 7 June 2026 | Spot Gold: ~A$6,150/oz (US$4,334) | **GOLD.AX:** $57.04

GC Front Month: $4,353.90 (-$151, -3.35% on Friday) | GCVL (30d vol): 26.98 (+4.43)


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0. Situation Update — “The Flush”

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Situation Update — “The Flush”

The week of June 2-6 delivered the biggest gold selloff of 2026: -3.2% to -4.9% across spot/futures on hot US jobs data → rate-hike repricing + USD strength. Gold is now -23% from the Jan 2026 high (~$5,600).

The question is whether this is a healthy speculative flush (bullish reset) or the start of a deeper trap (bear trend). This analysis layers COT positioning, COMEX OI trajectory, physical premiums, and ASX producer cash buffers to answer it.


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1. COMEX Delivery Notices — June 2026 Contract

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Delivery Notices (June 2026)

Date Daily (contracts) Cumulative (contracts) Cumulative (oz)
28 May 23,620 23,620 2,362,000
29 May 874 24,494 2,449,400
1 Jun 541 25,035 2,503,500
2 Jun 310 25,345 2,534,500
3 Jun 2,314 27,659 2,765,900
4 Jun 269 27,928 2,792,800
5 Jun 863 28,791 2,879,100

Key observation: June MTD already 2.88M oz — that's 3.3x May's total (884K oz) and above April (2.3M oz). The 23,620-contract spike on Day 1 suggests a large stopper.

Monthly comparison (2026):