let's build on those helium-focused scenarios you provided from the January 20, 2026, Galactica Project Update. I've incorporated the latest details from the February 12, 2026, update, which shows solid progress: Integrated plant operations have kicked off (amine unit removing CO₂, helium spot sales arranged), additional wells tied in (State 9, State 16 ready; Jackson 2 underway), and CO₂ liquefaction expected in H1 2026. Long-term offtake talks for both gases are advancing, with off-taker visits ongoing. This supports a realistic ramp-up path, starting low (Scenarios 1-2 now) and scaling to Scenarios 3-5 by mid-2026 via infill and tie-ins.
To "work with this a little," I've quantified the additive CO₂ revenue you mentioned, using conservative assumptions from the December 2025 presentation (helium conc. ~2%, CO₂ ~90%; merchant CO₂ $150-600/ton). I calculated raw gas volumes needed for the helium output, derived CO₂ byproduct (converted to short tons at ~0.0573 tons/Mcf), and added revenues.
All figures are gross project-level (pre-costs/royalties; BNL's 50% JV share noted). Exchange: ~1.5 AUD/USD. OPEX (~$13/Mcf on helium) and royalties (~25% est.) deducted for rough net.
CO₂ adds 52-72% uplift to helium revenue, depending on prices. It's less volatile (steady demand in food/bev, wastewater) and diversifies risk, as you noted—key if helium spots dip.
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I've scaled everything by trailers/month, annualized, and shown BNL's 50% share in AUD. Rough net (BNL share, post-OPEX/royalty on low case) included for realism. Plant capacity (~46,700 Mcf/month helium post-royalty) supports up to ~275 trailers/month theoretically, but your scenarios cap at 30 (logistical max for single loading point).
| Scenario | Trailers/Month | He Volume (Mcf/Month) | Gross Monthly Low (He + CO₂) | Gross Monthly High (He + CO₂) | BNL Annual Low (AUD) | BNL Annual High (AUD) | Rough BNL Net Annual Low (USD) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1: Start-Up | 1 | 170 | $125,252 | $365,007 | $1,127,266 | $3,285,063 | $550,373 |
| 2: Weekly Shipments | 4 | 680 | $501,007 | $1,460,028 | $4,509,063 | $13,140,252 | $2,201,492 |
| 3: Ramp-Up | 8 | 1,360 | $1,002,014 | $2,920,056 | $9,018,126 | $26,280,504 | $4,402,983 |
| 4: Commercial Flow | 15 | 2,550 | $1,878,776 | $5,475,105 | $16,908,986 | $49,275,945 | $8,255,593 |
| 5: High Throughput | 30 | 5,100 | $3,757,553 | $10,950,210 | $33,817,973 | $98,551,890 | $16,511,186 |
With the offer closed (Jan 23), you likely decided—but hindsight: Low 20% uptake raised only ~A$1.06M (vs. $5.46M target), issuing 213M shares (total now ~4.36B). Shortfall (~879M shares/A$4.4M) may still place by April, risking more dilution (~20% if full). Cash at end-2025: A$2.165M, post-offer ~A$3M—runway for ramp-up, but tight if delays.
Price at A$0.005 (Feb 16), unchanged from issue—market yawns despite progress (first trailer Jan, ops Feb).
Upside Shift: Scenarios show potential—Scenario 4/5 BNL net ~A$12-37M annual (AUD est.) by late 2026 could re-rate mcap (current A$21.8M) 2-5x if executed (stock to 0.01-0.025). CO₂ additive flips risk: Diversifies from helium volatility, with US demand strong (e-fuels, EV batteries). Feb update confirms momentum—sales starting, CO₂ soon.
Downside Reality: Still a dilutive trap—price stagnant, low raise signals skepticism. Execution risks (delays, low flows) high; no Q4 revenue, burns ~A$1M/quarter. If ramp stalls, another raise by Q3 2026. Brutal? Cut losses—helium hype hasn't lifted price yet. But if surfing conviction waves, hold for H1 catalysts (first sales, CO₂ start). Mcap/revenue multiple could justify 0.01+ on Scenario 3 delivery.